Special Edition: Experts Preview Carney's China Moment Ahead of Landmark Trip
We bring together exclusive expert commentary looking at where the puck is going ahead of the Prime Minister's visit to Beijing.
This week’s special edition of the Canada-China Brief offers exclusive insight:
As Mark Carney embarks on a trip to Beijing this week — the first by a PM in almost a decade — IPD asked 15 experts from Canada and China for their assessment of the road ahead as Ottawa juggles economic diversification and an increasingly uncertain world.
Featuring:
Sergio Marchi: Advisor, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy; Former Minister of International Trade and Ambassador to the World Trade Organization
Jocelyn Coulon: Advisor, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy; Former Senior Advisor to the Minister of Foreign Affairs
Zhao Xingshu: Senior Fellow, Institute of American Studies
Mark Kruger: Senior Fellow, Yicai Research Institute, University of Alberta China Institute, Centre for International Governance Innovation
Margaret Cornish: Advisor, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy; Former Executive Director, Canada China Business Council
Hugh Stephens: Advisor, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy; Former Assistant Deputy Minister, Policy and Communications, Global Affairs Canada
Jia Wang: Senior Fellow, China Institute, University of Alberta
Alex He: Senior Fellow, Centre for International Governance Innovation
Jeff Mahon: Director, Geopolitical and International Business Advisory, StrategyCorp; Former Deputy Director, China Division, Global Affairs Canada
Yanling Wang: Professor, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University
Jeffrey Reeves: Senior Washington Fellow, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy
Xu Yanzhuo: Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of World Economics and Politics
Thomas Liu: Research Fellow, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy
Wenran Jiang: Advisor, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy; Founding Director, China Institute and Mactaggart Research Chair Emeritus, University of Alberta
Jeremy Paltiel: Senior Fellow, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy; Professor Emeritus, Carleton University
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From the Experts
Sergio Marchi
Advisor, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy; Former Minister of International Trade and Ambassador to the World Trade Organization
Prime Minister Carney’s visit to China is a critically important undertaking, given that our bilateral relationship had been allowed to languish by the previous government. Indeed, it has been almost 10 years since our leaders have met. That is no way to grow and sustain such a key partnership.
While China’s politics and global interventions are imperfect, we cannot afford to isolate or be indifferent to this vast economic power. Canada needs to constructively engage and work with China, as we did before. If we do not, we will be the ones to suffer the most. Thus, Carney is wise to make this a priority early in the new year.
It also comes in the wake of continued destabilizing economic and political actions by Donald Trump. Not only has he imposed illegal tariffs on some of our country’s key sectors, but he continues to muse about Canada becoming the 51st State. And the latter now takes on greater concern after the U.S. incursion into Venezuela, and the threats being levelled at other sovereign nations. Therefore, it makes the trip to Beijing all the more essential and strategic.
After a wasted decade, it is impossible for Carney and Xi to tackle all the irritants over night. In fact, for me, the most important task is for the two leaders to establish a solid rapport based on mutual trust and understanding. This is central to the two nations successfully re-engaging politically and economically. Without a firm and respectful relationship at the top, our ministers, officials, and business leaders will be unable to forge new protocols.
With this rapprochement towards China, and more recently with India, as well as with other allies in Europe and Asia, our PM is astutely strengthening our non-U.S. relationships, so as to protect our prosperity and standing in the world.
Jocelyn Coulon
Advisor, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy; Former Senior Advisor to the Minister of Foreign Affairs
La visite de Mark Carney en Chine vient confirmer le tournant réaliste de la politique étrangère du Canada et une rupture par rapport au gouvernement Trudeau. Petit à petit, fusain à la main, Mark Carney dessine méthodiquement, sur la grande carte du monde, les nouveaux contours de la politique étrangère canadienne. Ceux- ci prennent forme depuis son arrivée au pouvoir il y a près d’un an et contrastent nettement avec le cadre imposé par Chrystia Freeland lorsqu’elle dirigeait la diplomatie canadienne. Une doctrine Carney est en train de naître.
Mme Freeland avait adopté le discours en vogue à Washington concernant les puissances dites autoritaires, non pas l’Arabie saoudite ou Israël, trop utiles à nos intérêts, mais bien la Russie et la Chine, désormais perçues comme des régimes à isoler. L’objectif était de construire autour d’eux une coalition de démocraties, un mur étanche destiné à éviter toute « contamination ». Au sein du gouvernement Trudeau, on parlait même de réduire dramatiquement nos liens avec la Chine, voire avec l’Inde. Cette politique a été un échec.
Mark Carney, cet « homme du monde », a rapidement compris que le monde avait changé et de manière dramatique. Au cours de ses visites sur quatre continents et de ses centaines d’interactions avec des dirigeants internationaux, il a réussi là où Trudeau avait échoué : réinstaller le Canada sur la scène internationale. Un retour fondé sur le réalisme, et non sur la promotion d’un monde fantasmé.
Carney a déployé un programme résolument pragmatique visant à faire du Canada une véritable nation, soucieuse de son identité et de ses intérêts propres, plutôt qu’un État postnational ouvert à tous les vents et dépourvu de consistance.
Le vocabulaire a également changé. La Chine n’est plus présentée comme un « ennemi », ainsi qu’elle l’avait été dans un document d’orientation politique de l’ancien chef d’état-major des Forces armées et ce, sans l’aval du gouvernement, mais comme un « partenaire stratégique », ce qui représente une véritable révolution.
Il faudra maintenant voir si cette visite fera évoluer positivement les relations avec la Chine. C’est tout l’enjeu.
Mark Carney’s visit to China confirms the realist turn in Canada’s foreign policy and a break with the Trudeau government. Gradually, pencil in hand, Mark Carney is methodically sketching, on the great map of the world, the new contours of Canadian foreign policy. These have been taking shape since he came to power nearly a year ago and stand in sharp contrast to the framework imposed by Chrystia Freeland when she led Canadian diplomacy. A Carney doctrine is taking shape.
Ms. Freeland had adopted the discourse then in vogue in Washington regarding so-called authoritarian powers—not Saudi Arabia or Israel, which were deemed too useful to our interests, but rather Russia and China, now seen as regimes to be isolated. The objective was to build around them a coalition of democracies, an airtight wall designed to prevent any “contamination.” Within the Trudeau government, there was even talk of dramatically reducing our ties with China, and even with India. This policy was a failure.
Mark Carney, a true “man of the world,” quickly understood that the world had changed—dramatically so. Over the course of visits to four continents and hundreds of interactions with international leaders, he succeeded where Trudeau had failed: restoring Canada’s place on the international stage. A return grounded in realism, not in the promotion of a fantasized world.
Carney has rolled out a resolutely pragmatic agenda aimed at making Canada a genuine nation, mindful of its identity and its own interests, rather than a post-national state open to all winds and lacking substance.
The vocabulary has also changed. China is no longer presented as an “enemy,” as it had been in a policy guidance document by a former Chief of the Defence Staff without government approval, but as a “strategic partner,” which represents a genuine revolution.
It now remains to be seen whether this visit will lead to a positive evolution in relations with China. That is the key issue.
Zhao Xingshu
Senior Fellow, Institute of American Studies
In recent years, Canada’s status as a middle power has gradually weakened. Since taking office, Prime Minister Carney has put an emphasis on enhancing Canada’s global standing. Middle powers become significant participants in the international system by contributing to regional or global order. Their global standing stems not only from material capabilities relative to other nations — such as resource endowments and economic strength — but also from the potential roles they can play within the international community.
Facing rising complexity and uncertainty in the international landscape, how Canada conducts itself in third-party affairs or global issues remains critically important. This directly impacts the strength of its middle-power status and its ability to build a more balanced Canada-U.S. relationship under the pressure of Trump’s tariffs. With the context of deepening strategic competition between China and the US, Canada, like other nations, faces mounting pressure from the U.S. side. China-U.S. strategic competition will will persist for a long period of time. However, the major driving force of Canada’s China policy remains Canada’s own national interests, not anything else.
Facing strategic competition between China and the United States, how Canada navigates its relationship with China serves as a litmus test for validating and strengthening its status as a middle power. The resumption of China-Canada diplomatic dialogue reflects Canada’s efforts to explore its position within the U.S.-led alliance system. Currently, China and Canada have just reopened diplomatic channels for dialogue and communication, and the future will usher in a period of repositioning. Fragmented and piecemeal diplomatic exchanges cannot sustain the long-term positive development of bilateral relations. Only by reaching pragmatic economic and trade agreements can the two countries generate the endogenous momentum for enduring cooperation.
Building upon the foundation of the Canadian Prime Minister’s visit to China, if both sides focus on areas of consensus and shared interests to tangibly advance the restoration of economic and trade exchanges, it will not only facilitate the return of China-Canada relations to a healthy, stable, and sustainable trajectory but also help consolidate Canada’s identity as a middle power. Moreover, it will contribute to Canada’s efforts to establish a more balanced relationship with the United States.
Mark Kruger
Senior Fellow, Yicai Research Institute, University of Alberta China Institute, Centre for International Governance Innovation
In traveling to Beijing, Prime Minister Carney faces two challenges: resetting Canada-China relations and determining just how much policy independence he really has.
The former should be relatively easy. Ambassador Wang Di has said that if Canada removes its tariffs on Chinese EVs, his country would reciprocate by lifting theirs on Canadian agricultural products. Manitoba and Saskatchewan welcome this approach. Meanwhile, Canada’s domestic EV strategy has been pretty disastrous. Despite government support of $52.5 billion to catalyze investments of $46.1 billion, the Canadian EV market has been plagued by high costs and falling sales. Many of the proposed investments have been put on hold and the government has postponed its mandate for all cars sold in 2035 to be EVs.
As Premier Smith described this bizarre state of affairs, “We’ve got a 100 percent tax on EV vehicles from China that no one’s buying in order to protect an EV industry in Ontario that doesn’t exist. And in return, we are seeing punishment on pork and canola in our western provinces, which are products people do want.”
So, can Prime Minister Carney just simply remove the EV tariffs? Canada’s cutting the tariffs is unlikely to make President Trump happy and it would turn up the pressure during the sensitive CUSMA review period. There is, however, a way out. Canada and China have taken each other to the WTO with respect to the legitimacy of their tariffs, all of which are likely inconsistent with the countries’ WTO obligations. Should both countries be directed to remove their tariffs, Canada could credibly tell the U.S. that it had no choice.
Both Prime Minister Carney and President Xi are eager to uphold the remnants of the rules-based international order. Perhaps they can establish a friendly rapport and bide their time while the WTO process works in their favour.
Margaret Cornish
Advisor, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy; Former Executive Director, Canada China Business Council
Carney will be the first Prime Minister to visit China since 2017, which in itself is a major reset. Events have persuaded Canadians that rapid and sustained trade diversification is essential to Canada’s continued independence. Prime Minister Carney characterized his visit to Beijing as an effort “to broaden the role of China in Canada’s diversified global engagement alongside Europe and emerging markets.“
The opportunities are very significant but the kicker is that rapid diversification will require a much heightened level of attention and effort from both business and all levels of government. For decades the federal government has lacked continuity in its efforts to support Canadian interests and business in China. A revolving door of Canadian ministers and their officials, often in new portfolios, seemed to make each ministerial visit to Beijing a “new start” with little in the way of sustained follow-up on agreed initiatives
Bilaterally, both China and Canada will have to come to terms with what the other means by “interference”. Positions of both sides need to be addressed with respect. In terms of the visit, PM Carney likely to handle the issue adroitly. The U.S. has repeatedly warned Canada against engaging with China. PM Carney’s China visit and the (potential) lifting of Canadian tariffs on China’s EVs takes place at an exceptional moment – the U.S. pivot from global primacy to the Western Hemisphere. This isolationist and exclusionary focus, reflected in the U.S. National Security Strategy, the action against Venezuela, and the “need to take Greenland” all highlight the diversification imperative facing Canada.
Fortunately, China is also in a bind. Using tariffs and other bilateral measures as a big stick, Washington is pressuring all its trading partners to cut China out of their trade and investment flows. While unlikely to be successful, in near-term this is highly damaging both to China and to world trade. Canada-China relations have been chilly for years and China has multiple global sources of virtually all Canada’s exports but this risk-filled moment for China favours working with Canada.
PM Carney was quick to recognize the challenges that confront Canada in a rapidly changing world order. We can expect the PM to go well-prepared, to engage productively with President Xi and to insist on the fullest possible follow-up on return to Ottawa — all essential elements in achieving an ambitious agenda.
Hugh Stephens
Advisor, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy; Former Assistant Deputy Minister, Policy and Communications, Global Affairs Canada
Prime Minister Carney’s early visit to China is a welcome step in getting the bilateral relationship back on a more productive plane and in pursuing Canada’s goal of greater trade diversification. Normally, prime ministerial visits are negotiated and planned months in advance to ensure a suitable set of “deliverables” justifying the visit and ensuring its success. However, this time it has been just over two months since Mr. Carney met Xi Jinping on the margins of the APEC Leaders’ meeting in South Korea leaving little time to resolve the most thorny issues, such as Chinese retaliatory tariffs on Canadian agricultural products (as a result of our 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs) and China’s proclivity to interfere with the Chinese diaspora in Canada.
While high-level official delegations from Ottawa have been in Beijing recently to help prepare the ground, given the short lead time it is unlikely there will be any major breakthroughs on the respective tariff issues, although there will be discussion of these topics and likely some form of ongoing review and negotiation. That is an insufficient deliverable for the visit, but there will likely be announcements related to energy exports, particularly LNG, bearing in mind that PetroChina is one of the investors in LNG Canada and Sinopec has been negotiating to secure supply from the Cedar LNG project expected to come on stream in 2028.
In addition, China has become a major buyer of Canadian crude facilitated by the expanded capacity of the TMX pipeline. There may be an offtake agreement. Energy will be the focus along with further dialogue to resolve other trade issues. While some reference to security issues is inevitable, this will not be a major focus and the language of the communique will be carefully negotiated to avoid putting Canada in the crosshairs of any U.S.-China security issues.
Having indicated that it wants to reduce reliance on Canadian imports the U.S. can hardly object if Canada seeks alternative export markets, including in China, something the U.S. is itself doing. This visit will set the stage for further bilateral negotiations on trade including possibly a future visit to Canada by Chinese Premier Li Qiang.
Jia Wang
Senior Fellow, China Institute, University of Alberta
The symbolism of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trip to China is significant, as it signals an effort to reset a long-strained relationship and usher in a phase of closer bilateral engagement. While both sides will have worked industriously behind the scenes to reach some common ground, expectations for headline-grabbing breakthroughs should remain measured. Some compromises may be possible, but a full resolution of trade frictions, particularly over Chinese electric vehicles and Canadian agricultural exports, remains challenging in the near term.
The more attainable area of progress lies in energy cooperation. As China seeks to secure reliable supplies of conventional energy and Canada looks to expand and diversify its export markets, energy trade represents a clear shared interest. Recent U.S. moves to assert control over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves add further urgency, with near- and long-term implications for both China and Canada that could accelerate cooperation in this area. Beyond energy, the leaders may also announce broad agreements aimed at improving overall relationships, strengthening dialogue mechanisms, and deepening trade and people-to-people ties.
Re-engaging China at the highest leadership level forms part of Canada’s broader effort to rethink its economic strategy and international positioning amid a profound shift in U.S. politics and Canada–U.S. relations under a second Trump administration. For China, hosting the Canadian leader aligns with intensified diplomatic efforts to cultivate a more favourable international environment as it prepares to launch its 15th Five-Year Plan, the blueprint for its next phase of economic and social development. In this context, the timing of PM Carney’s trip is particularly opportune.
Alex He
Senior Fellow, Centre for International Governance Innovation
The most significant deliverable from PM Carney’s visit to China could be a formal, mutual acknowledgment of a stabilized bilateral relationship. While such stabilization may be interpreted differently by each side—whether as a renewed strategic partnership or a looser framework—it would nevertheless provide a basis for constructive approaches to resolving disputed issues, including Canada’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and China’s retaliatory measures on Canadian canola and other agricultural products.
Further cooperation on energy and natural resources—including oil, liquefied natural gas, uranium and so on—as well as agricultural products would align closely with the Carney government’s priorities of positioning Canada as an “energy superpower,” diversifying trade, and doubling trade with partners beyond the United States.
Additional cooperation in services such as education, clean energy, green finance, tourism, environmental technologies, and climate-related solutions could also be advanced. These economically meaningful yet less security-sensitive areas have traditionally constituted the foundation of cooperation between the two countries, even during periods of strained bilateral relations.
Strategic necessity on both sides defines the cooperative foundation of this visit. For Canada, external pressures have accelerated this strategic recalibration. Its relationship with the United States—and the economic challenges posed by new U.S. tariffs—forms the critical international context shaping this trip. The return of Donald Trump to the White House has reintroduced an unpredictable approach to trade, with renewed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, lumber, and other products, as well as fresh uncertainty surrounding potentially contentious CUSMA renegotiations. This environment presents a major hurdle that will need to be carefully managed for talks with China to succeed.
For China, expectations are broadly similar: politically and strategically stable cooperation as the essence of bilateral relations, ideally through a return to the 2005 strategic framework, alongside expanded cooperation in energy, agriculture, and climate-related issues. One objective China continues to pursue—but is unlikely to achieve during this visit—is Canada’s endorsement of China’s application to join the CPTPP. Canada is unable to offer such support in the near term, as it would imply trade negotiations with a non-market economy and could trigger the CUSMA “poison pill” clause that allows parties to withdraw from the agreement. Instead, this issue may be addressed only in vague language, framed around renewing the spirit of the 2005 strategic partnership.
Balancing economically realistic reengagement with concerns over national security, human rights, and foreign interference remains the central challenge of the visit. This is the trickiest aspect of the trip—and has long been the most difficult dimension of Canada–China relations. Ultimately, the priority will be to restore regular communication at all levels, clearly signal areas of cooperation, and reach a shared understanding that political disagreements should not spill over into economic engagement.
Jeff Mahon
Director, Geopolitical and International Business Advisory, StrategyCorp; Former Deputy Director, China Division, Global Affairs Canada
It’s not hyperbole to claim that Prime Minister Carney’s trip to China is critical for Canada’s future. Generally speaking, a leader’s visit isn’t a big deal, but this trip comes at unique moment in history. Canada-China relations have been in rough shape since December 2018 when Canada followed through on a U.S. request to extradite Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou. While that is often cited as the turning point, the reality is that relationship was already in choppy waters beforehand as Canada – and other liberal market democracies – were struggling to reconcile the geopolitical implications of China’s rise and its multifaceted impact on relations.
The second coming of Donald Trump has again altered this trajectory – but it hasn’t completed overturned it. We’re clearly entering a new era of international relations where Canada is at an inflection point that will determine the extent that it can control its destiny. To be clear, this visit will not decide everything. Rather it will set the direction for the next several months as Canada and China try to find a way to resolve their current dispute while putting the relationship on stronger footing for the long-term. The obvious wrinkle in this plan is U.S.’ inward turn to dominate the Western hemisphere. A successful outcome will be walking the tight rope of expanding the zone of cooperation with China while not encroaching on the unclear bounds of U.S. sensitivities.
In this interdependent and geopolitically fraught world, the immediate potential for Canada-China relations is framed by Canada-U.S. relations. Amidst this pessimistic background is a cause for optimism: Prime Minister Carney appears to be attuned to these high stakes and has demonstrated himself to be a leader of reasoned compromise.
Yanling Wang
Professor, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s upcoming four-day visit to China sends a strong signal of a potential reset in Canada–China relations and builds on a series of recent high-level contacts that have already begun to shift the bilateral dynamic.
Carney met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in New York at the United Nations General Assembly last September, where Li expressed China’s willingness to pursue “more active and practical efforts” to improve ties with Canada and deepen mutually beneficial cooperation through dialogue and consultation. Carney also met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the margins of the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea, accepted Xi’s invitation to visit China, and both sides agreed to work constructively to resolve outstanding trade irritants and explore cooperation across areas like agriculture, energy and manufacturing.
China’s diplomatic gestures—including comments from Canada’s ambassador highlighting rapid progress in advancing bilateral ties—underscore Beijing’s interest in strengthening economic engagement with Ottawa. Given this positive momentum and repeated high-level contacts, there is every reason to expect Carney’s visit to yield tangible deliverables (though the extent remain to be seen) on market access, investment facilitation, and sector-specific agreements such as China’s tariffs on the few agricultural products. The deliverables could help anchor the relationship in practical gains rather than rhetoric.
Stronger Canada–China economic ties are particularly timely as Canada intensifies efforts to diversify its trade partnerships amid unpredictable U.S. trade policy, and both countries navigate trade frictions with the United States. With visible benefits on the table, rallying domestic support and gradually shifting public opinion becomes more feasible, creating the political space for a more stable and mutually beneficial bilateral relationship to grow.
Jeffrey Reeves
Senior Washington Fellow, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy
When I published Follow the Leader, Lose the Region in 2023, I argued that Canada’s approach to Beijing had become overly derivative of Washington’s, leaving Ottawa strategically constrained across trade, energy, and diplomacy. In isolating China within a broader Indo-Pacific strategy as a matter of principle rather than practice, Canada increased its dependency on U.S. leadership while unnecessarily narrowing its diplomatic and economic options with the world’s second-largest economy. In consultations with Global Affairs Canada at the time, I questioned whether a sustained diplomatic break with Beijing was viable; assurances that Canada could separate its Indo-Pacific and China strategies have proven difficult to realize in practice.
Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing reflects an implicit recognition of this reality. Any meaningful Canadian strategy toward the Asia-Pacific must include functional relations with China. Public reporting suggests discussions will focus on trade, energy, agriculture, and international security, with a particular emphasis on reducing Canada’s overreliance on the United States rather than pursuing formal market integration. Given USMCA constraints, a free trade agreement is off the table, making targeted progress on agriculture—especially Chinese duties on canola—and selective market access more plausible. China may also press for reduced Canadian tariffs on electric vehicles, which could offer tangible benefits for Canadian consumers.
If successful, the visit would signal a pragmatic recalibration: one that restores diplomatic flexibility, supports Canadian economic interests, and modestly strengthens Ottawa’s bargaining position within the North American trade relationship.
Xu Yanzhuo
Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of World Economics and Politics
It has been over nine years since Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s last official visit to China. Over this long span, Canada-China relations have weathered significant ups and downs, and it is believed that both sides have drawn profound lessons and experience from this period.
Compared to nine years ago, the current international geopolitical landscape has undergone a profound transformation. 2026 brings immense external pressures and challenges upon Canada, including the renegotiation of USMCA. China is also actively pursuing a strategy of diversifying its trade partners to mitigate global supply chain uncertainties. Against this backdrop, advancing pragmatic cooperation holds significant strategic value for both nations.
With Mr. Carney’s visit to China, there is a resounding call from various sectors in both countries to restart pragmatic dialogue. The Canadian side has highlighted cornerstone sectors such as trade, traditional energy, and agriculture prior to the trip. For me, beyond basic commodity trading, several high-potential areas stand out for detailed collaboration: such as green finance, clean technology, agricultural tech, food safety, the “silver economy”, winter sports, and people-to-people exchanges in education and tourism.
The two sides can achieve substantive breakthroughs in areas directly affecting public welfare such as visa facilitation, the resumption of direct flights, and cultural exchanges — these will undoubtedly inject strong momentum into substantively warming bilateral relations.
Thomas Liu
Research Fellow, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy
PM Mark Carney’s multi-day visit to China is likely to focus on practical cooperation rather than symbolic outcomes. The most plausible deliverables could be in the energy sector, where Canada and China are structurally complementary and where there is timely urgency for both sides. Canada needs optionality and stable markets, and China needs diversified suppliers, particularly in the West. Rather than major announcements, the visit may produce framework agreements or renewed working-level mechanisms that enable concrete commercial and project-level cooperation over time.
The broader international environment is clearly shaping this engagement. Recent developments in Venezuela, Greenland, and Ukraine highlight growing geopolitical volatility and supply-chain uncertainty. While these issues may not be discussed explicitly, both sides will exchange perspectives in a pragmatic and discreet manner. China increasingly views Canada as a credible core-Western middle power with influence in peacekeeping and multilateral institutions. Canada, in turn, sees China as both an important market and a form of strategic hedging amid more unilateral U.S. actions toward Latin America and even close allies.
The main challenge is not political will, but execution. Regulatory complexity, red tape, and project efficiency will determine whether cooperation moves beyond signaling. Both countries recognize the urgency of working together; success will depend on credible follow-up, disciplined project management, and a focus on tangible outcomes rather than rhetoric.
Wenran Jiang
Advisor, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy; Founding Director, China Institute and Mactaggart Research Chair Emeritus, University of Alberta
Given that PM Carney’s visit to China spans three days, we can expect the bilateral reset agenda to be both strategic and tangible. It will be strategic because both sides, through several high-level meetings since last fall, have emphasized the global context of the relationship. It will be tangible because Canada seeks to de-escalate trade tensions, which may lead to mutual agreements to reduce tariffs. This could range from potential adjustments to Canada’s 100 percent levies on electric vehicles to reductions in China’s retaliatory tariffs on Canadian agricultural and seafood products. We can also anticipate broader framework agreements covering areas such as energy and environmental cooperation, joint climate action, and people-to-people projects.
Canada has faced U.S. pressure since the Trump administration launched its global trade war, leaving Ottawa uncertain about the timing and terms of a potential CUSMA renegotiation. Consequently, diversifying trade has become a clear priority for Carney. The U.S. would likely view closer Canada-China ties with displeasure. If the first Trump presidency is any guide, Washington could act to constrain Canada’s relations with China, as seen with the “poison pill” clause inserted into the current CUSMA. Therefore, Carney may use this trip not only for trade diversification but also as potential leverage in future negotiations with the U.S. This adds a layer of strategic complexity that extends beyond simply restoring trade with China.
The first hurdle is moving beyond the framework and mindset of Canada’s 2022 Indo-Pacific Strategy which remains the guiding document for much of the government and bureaucracy in dealing with China. The IPS was drafted when Ottawa largely subordinated its strategic interests to those of the U.S. and when Canada-China relations were at a low point. The second hurdle is overcoming ideological resistance from Canadian policy elites and mainstream media, who have grown hostile to any reset of relations with China. This will require Carney to demonstrate strategic determination and issue firm policy instructions to the bureaucracy. Finally, even a successful Carney-Xi summit yielding strong outcomes and consensus would require detailed follow-up to work out complex policy and project-level cooperation.
Jeremy Paltiel
Senior Fellow, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy; Professor Emeritus, Carleton University
After 8 years, Canada’s Prime Minister is headed to Beijing. Eight years in which the ground has shifted, not just in Canada’s relationship with China, but in Canada’s relationship with the world, especially our nearest neighbour and senior ally. Eight years ago the agenda was the opening of negotiations on a free trade agreement. Today, the fervent wish is to restore something like normal trade relations. Even this is a steep hill to climb.
Canadians, with reason, approach China with a bitter aftertaste, but they face the world with apprehension, and are eager to seek stability and the prospect of diversified trade wherever they can. China is the world’s largest trading power and the world second economy. When number one threatens to shut you out, it would be foolish not to turn to number two. This is something Mr. Carney is keenly aware of.
The challenge of securing a market in a country with a trillion dollar trade surplus, the largest of any country in history, is huge in itself. The challenge of doing so in the face of a number one trading partner that looks askance at any country seeking closer ties with its geopolitical rival and one with which it hopes to secure privileged access is near insurmountable. Canada’s key card, is energy exports, including the same heavy oil that the U.S. seeks to secure for itself from Venezuela, and LNG where the U.S. looks to compete with us.
None of this requires abandoning Canadian values. We will agree to disagree and protect Canadian security just as China prioritizes its own national security as its highest value. What is required is respect, and respect for differences, within a common understanding that maintains our values and upholds the rights and interests of our citizens. There is no room in the current global configuration to preach from a stance of moral superiority. China shares an interest in maintaining global order. President Xi Jinping is well aware of the precarity of the global order and knows that China’s current trade posture is unsustainable. That is the basic point of our bilateral and multilateral engagement and the starting point to resolving the difficult challenges that face our bilateral trade and investment interests.
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